[Question Thread] Quick Question => Short answer

    I am asking, just cause I want to know how many fails should I accept before i start thinking about bugs, that's all.


    I admit that if I had failed enchanting 20 times in a row I would just think i am unlucky...

    Edited once, last by Elysorrow ().

    U had perma fail. Every spreaded attempt, starting since +9, was perma fail. U could use everything, but u had only one result. As it was told - not a single player, but everyone who tried enchant +9 and highier


    Not matter 10 100 1000. It could be even billion and was fail. I got rage also, so i even entered aion discord. There was regarded this situation. They were scared about possible rollback, because of it.


    (together with the Aion team also people, what did enchantment extreme +8 :) )

    Quote from Elysorrow

    Ok, but how do you know it was not just a very unlucky streak for all of them? How do you decide how many fails are let's call it "out of probability range"?

    I know what you mean. But "luck" in MMORPGS is way more calculated than you might think. Imagine it the other way around. Everybody succeeded. A nightmare that must be prevented at all cost ;)


    So it depends on the system they use. But to give you a simple example they could use a enchantment pool. Meaning out of the next 100 tries on Server A 33 are meant to succeed (Adding up to a 33% rate).

    They did not look into certain players logs but into the games overall logs instead. Thats why thye can be 100% sure. I hope you can understand my explanation :)

    Omg man. Could U understand it, please ... that these rates were corrupted, and U received other rate 100%, instead of event rates - for result: 100 % fail xd. Now maybe better wrote.

    Quote from Servercrash
    Quote from Elysorrow

    Ok, but how do you know it was not just a very unlucky streak for all of them? How do you decide how many fails are let's call it "out of probability range"?

    I know what you mean. But "luck" in MMORPGS is way more calculated than you might think. Imagine it the other way around. Everybody succeeded. A nightmare that must be prevented at all cost ;)

    I believe it is. I always wondered how often they check the set percentages of e.g. loot drops. In the past when grinding was a thing, i remember there were often these drops spikes that i always interpreted to myself that software realized it is close to reaching a limit (a probability check) when it must adjust drops for a particular player to reach that set percentage within a predetermined numbers of mobs, and if the percentage of drops were much below that rate it quickly added more loot to next couple of mobs. These spikes were actually very noticeable.


    Ofc this explanation may be completely off, but it's a topic that i always wanted to know how it actually works and how randomization is programmed in a particular game: like if the probabilities are calculated for each player or each day separately or maybe several times per hour, maybe for whole faction, for people that play in the same region etc.


    robi1102

    If you know what probability means, then you can understand that if 1000 people fail once it doesn't necessary mean the system is corrupted. Same goes for "x" people and "y" fails. I just wanna know what values can x and y reach to call system corrupted.

    Quote from Elysorrow

    If you know what probability means, then you can understand that if 1000 people fail once it doesn't necessary mean the system is corrupted. Same goes for "x" people and "y" fails. I just wanna know what values can x and y reach to call system corrupted.

    You pretty much answered yourself here

    Quote from Elysorrow

    If you know what probability means, then you can understand that if 1000 people fail once it doesn't necessary mean the system is corrupted. Same goes for "x" people and "y" fails.

    There's no such number

    Quote from Elysorrow

    Ofc this explanation may be completely off, but it's a topic that i always wanted to know how it actually works and how randomization is programmed in a particular game: like if the probabilities are calculated for each player or each day separately or maybe several times per hour, maybe for whole faction, for people that play in the same region etc.

    Thats like the biggest secret in the gaming industrie. This question will remain unanswered forever probably.

    From my coding years which was a while ago, it was done via luck each char has a luck factor the higher the % the better the rewards the lower you get less. I know it was coded this way with my game, and the % of luck drops until you do something where the luck goes up. and that factor is something within the game itself which makes the % higher or lower within the DB for each char.


    the factors which make it go higher or lower is well hidden.

    Quote from Elysorrow

    I believe it is. I always wondered how often they check the set percentages of e.g. loot drops. In the past when grinding was a thing, i remember there were often these drops spikes that i always interpreted to myself that software realized it is close to reaching a limit (a probability check) when it must adjust drops for a particular player to reach that set percentage within a predetermined numbers of mobs, and if the percentage of drops were much below that rate it quickly added more loot to next couple of mobs. These spikes were actually very noticeable.

    It doesn't work like that at all. When you have rates; it's calculated every time an action involving the rate happens. You kill a mob and there is 30% chances to get the loot, there is a virtual calculation that is made and you get the loot or not. There is no such thing as global balance or adjustment that's not how probalities work. And for every action it happens again. It's basically like a virtual die is rolled for every action involving RNG determining what you will get. Works like that for pretty much all games that I know.

    Ok, ty.


    So it means we are talking about unlimited completely independent rolls which in the long run (number of rolls large enough) are supposed to get closer and closer to the predefined chance of success, let's say 30%. Shorter streaks can result in anything between zero and 100%.


    Which means that if an event is short enough and/or the number of rolls is small enough, there is certain chance that each and every roll could be fail. And from just these fails there is no way to affirm if these fails represent just one of very unlucky shorter streaks as a part of unlimited independent rolls or if fails are actually caused by bad code. (Same logic applies if all rolls are successful.)


    I understand your data showed (I assume) a reasonably enough data from enough players with just fails that made players angry and maybe GF suspicious.


    But I still wonder what would happen if those same players with same number of tries would reach a 15% success chance (you u can choose any percentage not very close to 30%) and if 15% success would be the end result even after a month of the event. Would GF consider that a bad coding as well? What about 45%?

    Quote from Elysorrow

    But I still wonder what would happen if those same players with same number of tries would reach a 15% success chance (you u can choose any percentage not very close to 30%) and if 15% success would be the end result even after a month of the event. Would GF consider that a bad coding as well? What about 45%?

    That's not how it works.

    When we talk about PRNG rates, we always talk about infinite number of tries.

    But distribution within a sample (1 day, 1 week, 1 month) is not guaranted.

    Otherwise, it would say somehow, that those rolls are not independant.

    Let's take it easy:


    Take the current rates: 33% chance of success

    So u can say 2 out of 6 tries are successfully.

    Now take a dice with 6 faces. Your goal is to roll a 1 or a 2 (in that case your stigma wents up). If you roll a 3, 4, 5 and 6 it fails.

    If you throw the dice 20 times, you can be lucky and get 20 times a 1 or 2, but you can also fail 20 times. Both is possible.

    If you throw the dice 100 times, it is very unlikely you hit 100% success or fail, but still it is possible. The higher your number of rolls the more you will see the contribution will be like 33% success, 66% fail.

    Quote from Zenuri

    If you throw the dice 100 times, it is very unlikely you hit 100% success or fail, but still it is possible. The higher your number of rolls the more you will see the contribution will be like 33% success, 66% fail.

    My rate is 3.7% success, 96.3% fail - with 54 rolls :)

    >>comment: I dont think so, that next 46 tries - remaining to achieve 100 tries, will raise my rate from 3.7% to even standard 20% :)


    This my situation is for my +11 stigma before start, and after enchanting it has been set to +9.

    Win to Loss is 2 to 52 :)



    I think there r many players having the same problem. If not stigmas, then daevaskills or odians ... With odians, when we could procure the contamination state since start attempt to +2 - there were also many players having odians enchanted to +5 with 4 and more cleans !!!!



    Maybe also there is a succes window, where all ur tries R a won, and also fail window, where all tries R a loss. But such long time like in my account - all the time a loss window? :)

    Edited 3 times, last by robi1102 ().

    Quote from robi1102

    My ratio is 3.7% success, 96.3% fail - with 54 rolls :)

    >>comment: I dont think so, that next 46 tries - remaining to achieve 100 tries, will raise my ratio from 3.7% to even standard 20% :)

    ratios != rates.


    RNG is made to be unpredictable, no matter what happens.


    You're full of false asumptions.

    I dont think so. Prove me, that i have still 33% event's rate? or even the standard 20%?

    I dont think so 3.7% is this 20 or 33%. Such fail mode 7-8 times a row is not normal. Other User used 160 enchants in this one event only, and didnt procur such mode like the other User, or didnt procur even the half mode of him ... ???


    As i regarded - i dont care that i wanna enchant my alt, because what it changes? It is the same normal char like others chars from others people lol - mains or alts. What it changes?



    Maybe ye - U have only perma luck with enchanting, so U write with a different model, because U didnt suffer such hard style like the others. But the others receive perma fail, because the game code (MAYBE) wants to balance the rate of server or servers. How to prove, that it is not, and i am not right? Everyone is sure 100% that all 100% code is visible?

    Edited 2 times, last by robi1102 ().

    Like Zenuri said, ratios tends towards rates.

    It is what is called a mathematical limit (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Limit_(mathematics)).

    Aka, 33% rates is something we talk about AN INFINITE NUMBER of tries.

    Your pity 200 stones is way way way way beyond that reach and has no relevance to the matter.


    Ratio is your statistics about a limited number of tries.

    Rate is the law about an infinite number of tries. Where do you put your 200 tries in this infinity?


    Zenuri example is far enough representative of the matter. Each try is independant with each other.

    It is not because you have 99 failures in a row that the 100th will be a success. Because each try is independant, the 100th could be a failure as well. And yet, still follow the rate (and not ratio).